The Future of Northern Ireland: the Role of the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement Institutions

Since the 2016 Brexit referendum a series of crises has gripped Northern Ireland's politics. This has had a destabilising effect across society, which has arguably been felt most acutely by political unionism. The Belfast/Good Friday Agreement (B/GFA) of 1998 created a series of institutions to deal with political conflict in Northern Ireland, manage cross-border cooperation and normalise relations between the UK and Ireland. However, many aspects of it have been sparingly and ineffectually deployed, most notably the second and third strands dealing with north/south and east/west relations respectively. In this article, the authors argue that regular use of the institutional arrangements created by the Agreement would help to deal with the challenges currently facing Northern Ireland and help address unionist anxieties over the Protocol. Use of the North-South Ministerial Council (NSMC), the British Irish Council (BIC) and the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference (BIIGC) should be prioritised. The unresolved issues arising from Brexit require a recommitment to the intergovernmental logic at the heart of the 1998 Agreement, despite the obstacles.     

中美特殊经贸关系与“契约”之路径

晚近,中美作为非同质的两个世界大国,新兴的一方与守成的另一方发生了巨大的权力变迁,相应地,双方在国际经贸领域的收益分配也出现了反转的态势,同时中美形成的激烈经济与战略竞争使得双方经贸关系"政治化"更加明显。缘此,中美之间的既有经贸关系正面临着前所未有的变动压力,或已难以完全固守普适于各国的统一"规则",客观上需要引入一种可适时而变的专门"契约"加以修补,借以寻求双方之间收益分配的再平衡。     

新时代工会参与构建和谐劳动关系面临的挑战及其应对 ——基于深圳工会试验区改革的分析

构建和谐劳动关系是新时代中国劳动关系发展的方向和目标,而工会作为劳动关系的重要一方,是构建和谐劳动关系的重要参与主体。新时代工会参与构建和谐劳动关系面临着劳动力市场分割、职工群体性事件诱因转变、经济下行压力和中美经贸摩擦的负面影响,以及隐含在“三新”就业中的职工权益保护难题等挑战。面对这些挑战所带来的劳动关系不确定性,深圳工会试验区在参与构建和谐劳动关系方面进行了有益的探索。重塑工会以应对劳动关系的不确定性、积极发挥工会参与社会治理的作用、培育基层工会的治理能力、加强工会服务职能建设和建立冲突事件预警与处理机制等是新时代工会参与构建和谐劳动关系的基本经验。     

大国战略竞争与美国对华技术政策变迁

世界政治领导国的对外技术政策很大程度上源于应对大国战略竞争的需要。当美国面临直接、迫切的大国战略竞争压力时,更愿意通过放宽技术进口和出口限制来争取合作者、应对竞争者,即"利用强者打败更强者"。自20世纪70年代以来,美国对华技术政策经历了从逐步放松再到加强限制这一过程。苏联的安全竞争压力迫使美国在加强对苏技术出口限制的同时,放宽对华技术出口限制。日本的经济竞争压力促使美国在加强对日技术进口限制的同时,放宽对华技术进口限制。应对直接、迫切的大国战略竞争压力,会促使世界政治的领导国更重视当期利益,同时也为潜在竞争者的成长提供机会。而当苏联和日本对美国构成的大国战略竞争压力逐渐褪去时,美国对华技术政策再度面临调整压力,以致于今为甚,通过发起对华贸易战,打压中国高新技术产业,全面收紧了对华高技术进出口限制。美国的技术竞争将是今后很长时间中国技术进步难以绕过的阻碍。     

The Taliban: a new proxy for Iran in Afghanistan?

Abstract

Iran has pursued a highly contradictory policy towards Afghanistan. On the one hand, it became a significant beneficiary of the overthrow of the Taliban regime by the US-led military intervention in 2001 in Afghanistan. The new Afghan government established cordial ties with Iran, allowing it to expand its political, economic and cultural influence in the country. Yet Iran has also provided significant support to the Taliban in its campaign to violently upend the political, social and economic processes in the country. This article examines the underlying domestic and regional security dynamics that contribute to this contradictory behaviour. It offers an assessment of how tensions between the United States and the Islamic Republic, as well as Tehran’s growing threat perception following the rise of the Islamic State – Khorasan in 2014, impact on Iran’s policy towards the Taliban. The paper argues that Tehran views the Taliban as an instrument to disrupt the influence of other actors in Afghanistan. The instrumentalisation of the Taliban, however, is likely to be counterproductive for Iranian security in the long run as it contributes to Afghanistan’s instability and insecurity and undermines Iran’s own long-term interests.     

构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称性战略平衡的视角

权力转移导致中美战略竞争加剧，维护中美战略稳定成为攸关中美关系发展以及世界和平与稳定的重大问题。构建中美核战略稳定性框架是实现中美战略稳定的基石。传统战略稳定理论主要基于美苏两大对称性阵营的敌对关系，对于不对称性和动态权力转移背景下的中美核战略稳定性的理论解释力和实践指导性不足。基于非对称战略平衡视角，中美核战略稳定性框架应以保证中国第二次核打击能力为基础。在机制层面，中美要加强交流、协商和谈判以建立相关机制，逐渐形成中美核战略关系的共识，推动达成稳定中美核战略关系的协议、条约等法律性承诺，从而构建稳定中美核战略关系的政治框架。在结构层面，中国无需谋求与美国对等的核力量。统筹考虑军事效用和政治效果，构筑包括核实力、核威慑决心和核威慑信息传递的完备核威慑战略，确保处于弱势的中国拥有对美国进行核反击造成美不可承受损失的能力，是实现中美核战略稳定的关键。     

Paving the way for farm animal welfare in international relations: an EU–Brazil case study

As a sensitive area in international trade, animal welfare measures have encountered resistance in negotiations at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Consequently, alternative avenues have been pursued to reach international trade policy convergence. To further understand the contemporary trade politics of animal welfare, an empirical investigation was conducted on the interplay between European and Brazilian actors in the context of livestock production. By drawing upon diplomatic studies and the global governance literature, this study identifies and analyses initiatives that parallel the WTO approach and through which the development and implementation of mutually acceptable farm animal welfare measures have been pursued. Research findings indicate that a constellation of international non-diplomatic actors are currently engaged in influencing the future development of farm animal welfare measures. Among the initiatives that enable the alignment of European and Brazilian animal welfare policies and practices, there are soft instruments such as knowledge sharing and private standards. The rise of new actors and the use of soft instruments have been, to a certain extent, able to mitigate the tardiness of a WTO consensus regarding the use of animal welfare measures. However, there are concerns that the use of private standards has become a shortcut to circumvent the rigours of the multilateral trading system. This concern deserves a closer look because instead of paving the way, private standards may hamper trade relations which in turn hamper progress in animal welfare matters.     

War Hypotheses: Drug Trafficking,Sovereignty and the Armed Forces in Mexico

This essay analyses how Mexican presidents have interpreted the concepts of drug trafficking and national security and how these particular connotations have redefined national sovereignty and the specific role of the armed forces in protecting this sovereignty. A qualitative technique of discourse analysis is used to examine public speeches by Zedillo (1994–2000), Fox (2000–2006) and Calderón (2006–2012). The conclusions suggest that drug trafficking and US omnipresence are the two main issues that shaped Mexico's national security threats during this period, with qualitatively distinct trajectories.     

论当代中国马克思主义政治经济学的新境界

政治经济学与经济学的主要区别在于是否研究生产关系。马克思主义政治经济学用唯物主义的自然史的方法论述经济关系。当代中国马克思主义政治经济学有如下新境界：准确把握中国社会主要矛盾的变化，准确把握中国经济新常态，创新宏观调控思路和方式等。历史发展没有止境，当代中国马克思主义政治经济学新境界的开拓也没有止境。而要不断开拓当代中国马克思主义政治经济学的新境界，需要有科学的方法论和正确的思考方式，既着眼当前又立足长远，做到“六个坚持”,具有批判精神，尤其是必须深入学习马克思主义政治经济学的基本原理和习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想。     

Towards a New Ireland

Despite all the contemporary difficulties that we face on the island of Ireland, twenty-four years on from the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, there is a clear sense of hope for a better future. We should be optimistic for our shared future, even if we do not agree on what form that should take. We cannot discuss Northern Ireland or its future without acknowledging that Brexit has significantly shifted the conversation. Not only has it brought Anglo-Irish relations to a low not seen in the past twenty-five years, but it has also damaged the reputation of the UK internationally and brought the topic of Irish unity back to the fore of our political discourse.